Week 10 Gambling Thread

[VegasCard]

I had a heck of a week last week going 17-8 ATS on Saturday then 11-1 ATS on Sunday/Monday. It finally put me above .500 on my NFL picks for the season! I've already hit on TNF taking Miami +3 over Cincy then taking USC on the money line to beat Oregon State this week so I'm off to a solid start.

Here are my Saturday picks:

Northern Illinois -26.5 @ UMass (W)
Temple @ Rutgers -12.5 (L)
Western Kentucky -18.5 @ Georgia State (L)
Tulane +2 @ FAU (L)
Arizona -16 @ California (L)
East Carolina -25 @ FIU (L)
Miami @ Florida State -21 (W)
Georgia vs Florida +3.5 (W)
Wisconsin @ Iowa +10 (L)
Northwestern @ Nebraska -5.5 (L)
Clemson -18 @ Virginia (W)
Pitt @ Georgia Tech -11 (PUSH)
Tennessee +11 @ Missouri (L)
Colorado @ UCLA -28 (L)
New Mexico State @ Louisiana-Lafayette -32 (L)

Thats what I've got for now. I'll post more if I play them. Who do you guys like today??

[eagle eye]

There wasn't much to fire me up this weekend but I made some picks, some still in progress. I liked most of the favorites in the games I picked. Some good and some bad.

Texas (-27.5) at Kansas L (Just when I start believing in Mack Brown - Texas by 22)
Clemson (17.5) at Virginia W (Clemson 59-10)
West Virginia at TCU (-12) L (WVU won outright)
Auburn (-8.5) at Arkansas W (Auburn by 18)
Okla State at Texas Tech (+2) In progress
Tennessee at Missouri (-11) In progress
Miami at Florida St (-21.5) In progress
UTEP (+47.5) at Texas A&M (I don't trust all those points-game in progress)

[VegasCard]

some bad breaks and late junktime scores had me finishing 4-9-1 yesterday and I have a ton to live up to last weeks 11-1 NFL week. I'm positive I cant match last weeks PERFECT Sunday ATS (only loss was MNF game) but i'll give it a shot:


PLAYS:

Chicago @ Green Bay -10

Bears will be without Cutler and Green Bay is at Lambeau. I think the Bears will show up early but they wont have enough to cover the number. Matchup trends: Bears are 28-17 ATS in November..Aaron Rodgers is 47-27 ATS since 2009.. Aaron Rodgers is 8-4 as starter ATS as a 10 or more point favorite.. Packers are 22-8 ATS at home since 2010

Baltimore -3 @ Cleveland

Cleveland has been playing better but they have had their issues with the former Browns since the rebirth and I think it'll continue today. Give me the Ravens minus the FG. Matchup Trends: Ravens have won the last 11 meetings..The road team has covered ATS in 7 of last 8 games.. Harbaugh is 5-0 ATS coming off a bye.

New Orleans @ NY Jets +6.5 (W)

I think everyone is jumping on the Saints here and if they were playing in the Superdome I would be too, but they're playing at NY and the Saints don't play nearly as well on the road. The Jets are due a better performance coming off the Cincy blowout and giving them nearly a TD at home is plenty for me. Give me the JETS and the points.

Atlanta @ Carolina -7 (W)

Panthers have finally begun playing to their potential and Vegas has noticed. Giving the Falcons a TD is a lot of points but Atlanta is still banged up and not playing in the comforts of the Georgia Dome this week. Carolina stays hot and hammers the Falcons. Matchup Trends: Falcons have won 7 of 9 meetings.. Carolina 18-26 ATS as home favorites of 3 points or more since 2001..Carolina is 34-47 ATS at home since 2003.

Tennessee @ St. Louis +3 (L)

The Rams played their most inspired game of the year last week in a loss to Seattle so will they come out flat today or continue to play at that level? That's the question in this matchup. Jeff Fisher should have his team motivated to play well versus his former team so give me the Rams and the points. Matchup Trends: Tennessee coach Mike Munchak is 5-7 ATS as a favorite..Jeff Fisher is 39-22 ATS as an underdog since 2006.


COULD PLAY THESE:

Tampa Bay @ Seattle -16

Tampa has mailed it in and Seattle is back home with something to prove after the lethargic performance on MNF vs the Rams. The only question I have is if Seattle keeps the petal down long enough to cover the 16. Matchup Trends: TB is 7-27 SU on the West Coast in franchise history.. Seattle is 24-7 ATS has home favorites since 2007.

San Diego @ Washington PK (W)

I think the Redskins are finally coming around offensively and I still haven't bought into the Chargers. SD is also traveling across the country for the noon kickoff. I think the Skins can win straight up.


THE REST:

Minnesota +10 @ Dallas -10 (L) (Cowboys 7-1 ATS and should be ticked after how last week ended)
KC @ Buffalo +5 (L) (Bills need a QB but for some reason I think this will be closer than experts think)
Philly @ Oakland -1.5 (One team is trending up and the other down)
Indy -3 @ Houston (Rookie QB, and Houston has burned me on too many times. They're 1-6 ATS this season)


Again, 11-1 is a lot to live up to from last week so we'll see how it goes. How do you all see them going today?

[VegasCard]

Just realized I didn't include the Pittsburgh at New England game. I like the Steelers getting the points on the road.

Pittsburgh +6.5 @ New England.

[LAZEEK]

I had the under in the 5 early games, and the over in the Wash game. 5-1!!!

[eagle eye]

VegasCard I didn't get in on the action in the pros yesterday but I can tell you I don't get your reasoning on the Jets game other than the Jets play much better at home. I think the difference was Jimmy Graham was hobbled and Darren Sproles was knocked out of the game early on. These are two difference makers for NO and they were missed.

I've been saying for two weeks Cleveland is better than they are given credit for and the Ravens just aren't very good. (Where have you gone Ray Rice?) If I would have played I would have played the Cleveland game and taken the Browns. I actually thought they had a chance to upset the Chiefs last week and they darn near did. Jason Campbell is making a huge difference at QB for the Browns.

To be fair, nobody saw the Patriots smackdown of the Steelers.

I'm sure a lot of people made money on the Dallas game if they took the Vikes and points. Dallas sucks as double-digit favorite.

Nice call on the Carolina game. The Panthers are starting to make believers of NFL fans. Atlanta just ain't good this year.

I don't see why Tennessee was the underdog in St Louis. Still the Rams can't buy a break and they should have beaten Seattle and Tennessee both. One good thing I picked up Zac Stacy in two fantasy leagues and he's been $$$!

Seattle got all they wanted from a very mediocre Tampa Bay team. All that said, Seattle is just plain lucky. They should have three more losses than they have but they seem to find a way to win. 16 points is bunch to give in an NFL game but you'd think going in Seattle at home is too good not to saddle up and ride the points. Again, I picked up Mike James in one fantasy league and he played his behind off. Mike Glennon is looking better every week.

So, what does that mean for tonight in the Green Bay? One, it's the oldest rivalry in the NFL and bad blood really exists. Two, it's a division game you just can't predict how those games go. Third, given the fact that we just passed a weekend of the weirdest games of the season in the NFL. You've got to take the Bears, right? Yeah, right. Another wild card is which Josh McCown shows up to Lambeau. The one who played his ass off against the Redskins or the one that has been a career backup for a reason? The Bears defense is banged up but so is the Packers D. The deciding factor is Aaron Rodgers but I can't bring myself to take the Bears and the points or give the points and take the Packers. So I'll sit this one out. Like Kenny Rogers once said, "You've got know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em." I'm folding while I'm still ahead.