Jeff Sagarin NCAA football ratings

[coachacola]

The pre-season Sagarin Ratings of SLC teams plus South Alabama, Texas State and UTSA.

College Football 2011 Starting Ratings the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here



HOME ADVANTAGE= 3.08 RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | ELO_CHESS | PREDICTOR
126 South Alabama AA = 58.33 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.33 126 | 58.33 126
145 McNeese State AA = 55.29 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.29 145 | 55.29 145
141 Stephen F. Austin AA = 55.54 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.54 141 | 55.54 141
149 Central Arkansas AA = 53.87 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.87 149 | 53.87 149
167 Lamar AA = 49.96 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.96 167 | 49.96 167
168 Sam Houston State AA = 49.81 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.81 168 | 49.81 168
177 Texas State AA = 48.61 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.61 177 | 48.61 177
192 Nicholls State AA = 44.70 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 44.70 192 | 44.70 192
195 SE Louisiana AA = 44.30 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 44.30 195 | 44.30 195
197 Northwestern State AA = 43.75 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 43.75 197 | 43.75 197
213 Texas-San Antonio AA = 40.80 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 40.80 213 | 40.80 213


Link: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc11.htm

[CardAmbassador]

Based on the Rating and advantage and ignoring the ELO_CHESS, we are favored by 9 over NWST 2 over SELA and 2 over Nicholls.

Why is NWST the lowest rated SLC team other than UTSA?

Will they update the advantage factor every week?

[NorthoftheBorder]

This is very interesting. I would have expected NWST, SE LA & Sam (not necessarily in that order) to be ahead of us. Sagrin must think he knows something the SID's & coaches don't. I would be happy to finish 3rd in our first year. Even happier to win it all.

[CardAmbassador]

This is very interesting. I would have expected NWST, SE LA & Sam (not necessarily in that order) to be ahead of us. Sagrin must think he knows something the SID's & coaches don't. I would be happy to finish 3rd in our first year. Even happier to win it all.

Since we are playing at SHSU, although their rating is slightly lower than ours, by this chart they will win because they get home field advantage points. I think LU's is the 3.08 number you see at the top. I'm not sure what SHSU's advantage points will be but it's likely greater than 0.15.

I'm honestly not sure if I'm reading this right, I read the first couple of paragraphs explaining the Ratings and how to compute a greater than 50% likelihood of winning.

[coachacola]

I'm sure this is all pretty meaningless until they've played a few games.

[Crawfish]

I think Sagarins do not really mean anything until after 3 games.

[Big T]

I'm not so sure about SHSU being over us. I look at that game as being a possible nutral feild. I really think Lamar fans will turn out in Huntsville for that game. expecialy since they are offering reduced prices to the season tics holders.