Fantasy Injury updates

[boomer]

I got a run down from the Fantasy greek this morning via twitter and thought I would let you guys take a look at the break down. There are some pretty significant injuries here that will have a direct impact on your draft. the hardest thing to do is keep quiet about what you know before the draft. I advise you to keep this to yourself and use this as an advantage when developing your draft strategy. Remember most players rely on ESPN and magazines to get their info so any info that is solid outside of these sources is always an advantage.

Rob Gronkowski, Patriots – Back

After Foster, tight end Gronkowski is the next high profile player who fantasy managers have been waiting to hear will be making it back to the gridiron sooner rather than later. Yesterday, reports suggested that Gronkowski could be placed on the PUP list to start the season. This would in effect mean, he would be unavailable until at least Week 7. However, today, Karen Guregian of the Boston Herald is reporting that Gronkowski could return as early as Week 3. We’ll know more soon, but it’s starting to sound like Gronkowski could be back on the gridiron sooner rather than later. Because of the negative to positive, back to negative news, any prognosis on Gronkowski’s health has to be guarded. Gronk is worth a mid-round pick because there are ample tight ends you could draft later in your draft to carry you for at least the first six weeks of the season.

Robert Griffin III, Redskins – Knee

Quarterback Robert Griffin III had knee reconstruction this past off-season. While it looks like RGIII has been able to do everything he has been asked to do in practice in rehabbing from his devastating injury, he has not been officially cleared to play. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Dr. James Andrewes met with the Redskins brass, including Daniel Snyder, Bruce Allen, and Mike Shanahan about RGIII. Accoridng to Schefter, Dr. Andrews told the Redskins, he and the team would not make decisions about RGIII until after the last preseason game. Unless there is a setback, the expectation is that Griffin will be green-lighted to play Week 1. Griffin is a great value pick, a quarterback that can likely be drafted after you have drafted your top two running backs and top two receivers, or some combination thereof.

Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Foot

Running back Jamaal Charles sprained his foot in practice. X-rays were negative. According to a Pro Football Talk source, Charles would play if there was a regular-season game. Charles should be fine for the regular season and remains a top-ten running back option.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars – Foot

Running back Maurice Jones-Drew is making his way back from a Lisfranc injury and offseason surgery. According to Ryan O’Halloren of The Florida Times-Union, Jones-Drew was being eased back into the offense. Jones-Drew saw his first game action this past week against the Jets, where he touched the ball four times for 29 all-purpose yards including a 20 yard reception. It can hardly be said that Jones-Drew looked like his old self, but the reality is he played, and did not look bad. Jones-Drew should be drafted as an RB2 with upside, likely in the latter part of Round 2 of most drafts.

Doug Martin, Buccaneers – Head/Neck

Running back Doug Martin went low on a block in pass protection and caught the knee of the Patriots Chandler Jones to the head. According to Stephen Holder of the Tampa Bay Times, “Martin was wobbly but went to the locker room under his own power. [Martin] said he passed concussion tests and could have returned to the game.” In other words, Martin is fine. Martin remains a top running back option, who should be drafted in Round 1 of all drafts.

Le’Veon Bell, Steelers – Foot

Highly touted rookie running back Le’Veon Bell sprained his mid foot in his debut against the Redskins. While “not as significant” as a Lisfranc injury, according to Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Bell could be “sidelined for awhile.” Previously, Bell was a solid RB2 for fantasy football draft purposes. Now, Bell should slide to be one of the first RB3’s drafted in fantasy, only because he could be unavailable for one or more weeks.

Jonathan Stewart, Panthers – Feet

Running back Jonathan Stewart had offseason surgery to both feet and has yet to practice this offseason. According to Steve Reed of the Associated Press, Panthers coach Ron Rivera isn’t ruling out the possibility of putting Stewart on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, which means he would miss the first six weeks of the season. Right now, Jonathan Stewart is barely worth a fantasy football draft pick.

Jordy Nelson, Packers – Knee

Two weeks ago, wide receiver Jordy Nelson underwent knee surgery to correct a nerve issue that had bothered him off and on since college. According to ESPN’s Rob Demovsky, while Nelson remained hopeful that he will be ready for the season opener, Nelson made no guarantees. Fortunately, it doesn’t sound like this is a long term issue as James Jones had a similar procedure. So while Nelson was originally a high end WR2 for draft purposes, his stock will obviously fall. Don’t be surprised if you are able to draft Nelson as a WR3.

Santonio Holmes, Jets – Feet

Wide receiver Santonio Holmes had offseason foot surgeries. About a week ago, Holmes said he couldn’t run. However, as ESPN’s Rich Cimini reports, “Santonio Holmes participated in a fairly vigorous pregame routine [this past] Saturday night, doing full-speed sprints and later running pass routes at three-quarters speed — a positive development as he continues to rehab[.]” There is no guarantee that Holmes will be ready by week one. Still, it doesn’t sound like he may be far off from a return either. He is a player to monitor as last season, had he not been injured, he was on a pace for 1,000 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns. While Holmes may go undrafted in some leagues, he is worth a late round pick for a team with a large roster that can stash Holmes on the bench. But, don’t reach for Holmes either because of the issues relating to the Jets passing game. Still, there is no denying the talent and the numbers.

Victor Cruz, Giants – Bruised Heel

After watching highlights of the Giants-Colts game, besides Victor Cruz coming up a little lame on a route which took him into the end-zone, it was difficult to see how he even hurt himself. X-rays were negative and Cruz has been diagnosed with a bruised heel. The expectation is that it should resolve itself with rest. Cruz continues to remain a top wide receiver draft pick in fantasy football formats. Note, however, it was reported today by ESPN’s Dan Graziano that Victor Cruz was on crutches and in a walking boot. While Cruz can see he himself ready for the opener, head coach Tom Coughlin was non-committal. This is a situation to monitor closely but at this point, there is no reason to believe Cruz will miss an extended period of time.

Wes Welker, Broncos – Ankle

Wide receiver Wes Welker sustained an ankle injury in this week’s game against the Seahawks. According to the Broncos, “further evaluation revealed . . . Wes Welker has a mild right ankle sprain.” Welker should be fine and is a solid WR2 for fantasy football purposes.

Roddy White, Falcons – Ankle

The Falcons’ Roddy White sustained a low ankle sprain in this week’s game against the Ravens. He is expected to be fine and remains a top twelve fantasy wide receiver, draftable in Round 3 of most fantasy football drafts.

Kendall Wright, Titans – Knee

Wide receiver Kendall Wright left this week’s game against the Bengals with a sprained knee. Indications are that he will not be out for a long time. Still while Wright is worth a late round pick, he could be held back by the Titans quarterback play as well as the Titans crowded group of wide receivers.

Heath Miller, Steelers – Knee

Health Miller was lost late last season to an ACL injury requiring surgery. It sounded like Miller was rehabbing well and surprisingly, close to being capable of returning to the gridiron. According to Jason LaCanfora, Miller is expected to get back to practice before the season opener, and could be back playing early in the season. Miller is a high end TE2, borderline TE1. Last season, Miller was having one of his best seasons as a pro.

Dustin Keller, Dolphins – Knee

Keller tore all three ligaments in his knee, and dislocated it. According to The Miami Herald‘s Armando Selguero, there is also a fear that he could have suffered nerve damage. Keller is done for the season. He should not be on any fantasy football draft boards.

Calvin Johnsion, Lions – Brusied Knee

Calvin Johnson sat out the Lions game against the Browns with a bruised knee. There is nothing about this injury to suggest that anything long term should come of it. Johnson remains the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy, draftable towards the end of Round 1 of most drafts.

We will be covering other options for these guys later this week in print along with the regular Fantasy nation podcast.

[boomer]

This is a continuation of the first piece where they break down the injuries that Arian Foster is working through now. I think that it is important because most people were led to believe that he had a calf strain and not a back injury.


Foster’s latest ailment has been reported as back pain which has “gone into his legs.” As reported by John McClain of the Houston Chronicle, head coach Gary Kubiak said Foster “got injections“ to treat his back. Moreover, as Brian T. Smith of Ultimate Texans has reported, Kubiak believes Foster will be ready for the season opener in twenty-one days. Kubiak believes this because he has seen Foster practicing “on his own” with the team’s head trainer. While there has been a setback in his recovery, Kubiak further said, “[I]t’s not like he’s been standing around for the last three weeks.”

Obviously, back problems are meant to be taken seriously, but so far there has been no real confirmation as to whether Foster’s problems are muscle related or something else. The conservative treatment Foster is getting suggests it’s muscular. Indeed, no one has said it’s something more. Until someone does, don’t speculate that it is. There are tests for determining whether there is some involvement of the vertebrae. Given Foster’s stature on the team, the Texans would likely not hesitate to conduct those tests and determine whether this is a problem that requires surgical intervention. Obviously, should the problem require surgical intervention, this would severely dampen Foster’s fantasy football value, and possibly even require that he sit out the season. But, we’re not there yet. (Shortly after this article was published, Foster’s condition was described as a “minor disc irritation in his back” but the hope was that he would still be back for opening day.)

As for Foster’s fantasy value, and the options fantasy footballers have this weekend, there are a few things The Fantasy Greek can suggest if Foster’s status remains unchanged at the time of your draft.

First, if you have the first overall pick in fantasy football drafts, draft the Vikings Adrian Peterson. With such a valuable pick, draft the best player that is healthy. After Foster and Peterson, there is no comparison to the other running backs in the draft. Foster and Peterson have the highest ceilings, and the highest floors, so take Peterson first.

Second, consider drafting Foster second, third, fourth, or fifth, but in any case, in the top five if you are comfortable doing that. Look, draft players you are comfortable drafting, when you are drafting them. If you feel you are taking an unreasonable risk drafting Foster, then don’t take it. You can draft Alfred Morris, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Trent Richardson, Jamaal Charles, or CJ Spiller instead. They are all top running backs in this draft. The best available information is that whatever Foster’s problem is, it’s treatable. Besides this, even in the one season Foster missed three games, he posted enough stats to finish top five in fantasy.

Third, if you draft Foster, handcuff Foster with Ben Tate. Ben Tate has his own independent value, but a fantasy manager who doesn’t have Foster on their roster would be foolish to draft Tate unless Foster was clearly sidelined with injury. Tate doesn’t have enough independent value when Foster might be healthy to make him a sure thing.

Fourth, Foster has been one of the healthiest running backs since he was anointed the Texans’ starter in 2010. In the past three seasons, Foster has missed only three games in 48 games. Among running backs, Foster seems to have a knack for avoiding the big hit. Foster is a running back that runs like silk. He runs smoothly, not violently.

Fifth, Arian Foster is likely not in decline. Unless he suffers from a degenerative orthopedic condition (or some other condition) which we are all unaware of, Foster is a very young twenty-six years old. He’s younger than Adrian Peterson, who is twenty-eight.

That said, lastly, whether you draft Foster or any other running back, expect them to get hurt. Understand that running backs are the most injury-prone players in fantasy football because of some of the brutal hits they take. Notwithstanding a season-ending injury, for a running back to miss a game because of a sore back, sprained ankle, or knee issue should come as no surprise. Expecting your running backs to make it an entire 16 games unscathed is simply unreasonable. Have plenty of running backs on your bench and always be prepared to play the waiver wire if necessary.

With all of this said you should know two things:

1. Foster is being dropped in my rankings because I do not like back injuries and running backs.

2. Ben Tate is a must own more than ever at this point if you have Foster as a RB1 or RB2.

[eagle eye]

This is a nice thread idea B! Wish I'd of thought it!

[eagle eye]

Packers RB DuJuan Harris left the game tonight with a knee injury. It is believed that it's the same knee that caused Harris to miss OTAs and training camp up until last week. The extent of the injury is not known at this point.

The Raiders have held RB Darren McFadden out of tonight's game vs the Bears due to a minor shoulder injury suffered last week against the Saints. It is only precaution though as McFadden practiced all week.

The Jets have taken Santonio Holmes off the PUP list but his return before Week 1 against Tampa Bay is questionable as Holmes is still suffering a lot of pain from the lisfranc foot injury last September. The drama surrounding Holmes is compounded by Holmes himself as he seems to be milking the injury to gauge the success or lack thereof of the Jets as they enter the 2013 season. Holmes, in my opinion should not be on the fantasy draft radar.

This isn't an injury thing but the Giants have announced that RB David Wilson will be the starter going into the season with Andre Brown as the primary backup. Brown handled short yardage and has come in on third downs and obvious passing downs so far in preseason because the Giants still don't trust Wilson's pass blocking for Eli Manning.

San Francisco rookie RB Marcus Lattimore, who had his knee destroyed while still in college at South Carolina has been rehabbing that knee that needed a total reconstruction all off season isn't close to being ready to join the team so the 49ers have put Lattimore on the NFI (non-football injury -- which is funny considering he really did get hurt playing football but not as a pro) list instead of injured reserve which leaves the door open a bit for Lattimore to come back this season after he sits out the first six games by rule as a player on the NFI. Lattimore was a fourth round pick by San Fran in April's draft and the 49ers knew this would likely be a 'redshirt' year for Lattimore. If Lattimore comes back and is close to the player he was at South Carolina before his injury then the Niners got a pure steal in the draft.