Fantasy Nation Week 4

[eagle eye]

I have to apologize to the fantasy players for totally blowing it last week about adding DeMarco Murray to the "sit" list. Every indicator screamed sit him down but nobody new that the Rams would play 6 in the box to stop the Cowboys passing game. I'm sure because of the derth of running backs in the NFL from a fantasy point of view the DM owners didn't sit him anyway but if you did, especially if it was on my advice----sorry about that.

There will be a different QB in Tampa next week. ESPN announced today Josh Freeman will be benched and rookie Mike Glennon from North Carolina State will start against the Arizona Cardinals this week.

After seeing teammate Trent Richardson traded last week WR Josh Gordon had to wonder if he's on the trading block too. Gordon got reassurance from head coach Rob Chudzinski that he was not on the trading block. Despite the loss of Richardson and the 2nd career start of QB Brian Hoyer Gordon was a big factor in the Brown upset win over the Vikings last Sunday. In his first game back after serving a suspension because of a violation of the NFL substance abuse program Gordon went off on the Vikings catching 10 balls for 146 yards and a TD. Look for Gordon to continue his role as the No 1 receiver this week against the Bengals. You can be sure that the Dog Pound will be jacked up with the resurgence of the Browns offense last week.

The Broncos defense is playing its ass off despite missing Vonn Miller and Champ Bailey so far this year. They are a top 5 defense leading the league in rush defense giving up a paltry 43 ypg so far in 2013. The defense has been a beast so far and is worth picking up in fantasy if available. They will be challanged by the Eagles hurry-up offense and league leading LeSean McCoy but the Eagles will have to make it a shoot out because their defense can't handle the Manning juggernaut offense.

Christian Ponder revealed today in London that he suffered a rib injury early in the last week's game. He didn't say if the ribs were broken or bruised but he did say that he intends to play either way. The 0-3 Vikes will face off against the 0-3 Steelers on Sunday in a battle that looked a lot sexier a month ago.

Who's drinking the Kool-aid on the Carolina Panthers after they blew out the Giants 38-0 last Sunday? Cam Newton passed for 3 TD's and ran for 1, DeAngelo Hall rushed for 120 yards on 20 carries and Ted Ginn and Greg Olsen both had decent days fantasy wise. This goes along with the defense pitching that shutout with a couple of turnovers and 7 sacks. The answer to the question of whether Carolina can repeat their performance will have to wait until next week because Carolina is on their bye week this week.

[eagle eye]

Tonight's game is a seeming no-brainer, right? 49ers are badass and coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Colts. Okay. I might have bought that prior to 2013 but these ain't the Niners. The defense is short two of it's most important players. First there is the indefinite absence of DE Aldon Smith who checked into rehab this week after wrecking his car last week prior to the Colts loss. Smith is a force on the line and not having him hurts the 49ers pass rush and run defense. There's also Patrick Willis who is listed as questionable and he hasn't practiced this week. Last year the Rams weren't as good as this year's Rams but they beat Frisco once and tied them once. The Rams are at home and probably just as pissed at being embarrassed in Dallas last week as the 49ers are losing to the Colts. On offense it appears that the QB that is suffering through a "sophomore slump" is Colin Kaepernick but with no help at WR except Anquan Bolden and Vernon Davis questionable with a balky hamstring you should expect a lot of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter--that is unless Jim Harbaugh abandons the run like he did against the Colts. The Rams have some good players and they are not missing critical players on both sides of the ball like San Fran. The defense is healthy and was playing well until the went to Dallas. Look for them to bounce back tonight. The offense has some good players that are all healthy. TE Jared Cook was shut down by the Cowboys but before that he looked like a free agent steal for the Rams and he should come back tonight. Everyone is waiting for Tavon Austin to pay dividends and we the Niners hurting on D this may be the week. Not to mention his kick return threat. He has already scored on a return this season. Chris Givens and Austin Pettis round out the receiving corps for St Louis.

I'm picking the Rams for the upset and I'm seriously considering taking the Rams and the 3 points they are getting as well as going for the under. The over/under is 411/2 points and I think the under is the way to go. As a Cowboys fan I was really nervous about the way the Rams had played going into last week's game. I still think that the Rams are the better than their 1-2 record and I'm not so sure Frisco isn't right where they deserve to be at this point in the season. I'm not saying they won't get better but right now they are very good.

[eagle eye]

Here are my starts and sits for Week 4. As usual, I just post the list with little or no explanation to keep the post as short as possible. I am open to comments or questions.

QB Starts

Andrew Luck vs the Jaguars
Phillip Rivers vs the Cowboys
Tony Romo vs the Chargers
Joe Flacco vs the Bills
RGIII vs the Raiders

Sleeper pick - Bryan Hoyer vs the Bengals

QB Sits

Matt Schaub vs the Seahawks
Eli Manning vs the Chiefs
E J Manual vs the Ravens
Geno Smith vs the Titans


RB Starts

DeMarco Murray vs the Chargers
Trent Richardson vs the Jaguars
Maurice Jones-Drew vs the Colts
Jamaal Charles vs the Giants
Darren McFadden vs the Redskins

RB Sits

David Wilson vs the Chiefs
Ryan Matthews vs the Cowboys
Stevan Ridley vs the Falcons
Rashard Mendenhall vs the Buccaneers

WR Starts

Reggie Wayne vs the Jaguars
Julian Edelman vs the Falcons
Torrey Smith vs the Bills
Pierre Garcon vs the Raiders

Sleeper - Cole Beasley vs the Chargers

WR Sits

Santonio Holmes vs the Titans
Sidney Rice vs the Texans
Roddy White vs the Patriots
Larry Fitzgerald vs the Buccaneers

TE Starts

Jason Witten vs the Chargers
Julius Thomas vs the Eagles
Tony Gonzalez vs the Patriots
Brent Celek vs the Broncos

TE Sits

Brandon Myers vs the Chiefs
Kyle Rudolph vs the Steelers
Owen Daniels vs the Seahawks
Jermaine Gresham vs the Browns

[boomer]

Lets look at how the medic cart shook down for the week.

Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Quarterbacks

Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars
9/24: Blaine Gabbert will start Sunday.

Christian Ponder, Vikings
9/27: Matt Cassel will start Sunday with Christian Ponder dealing with injured ribs.

Terrelle Pryor, Raiders
9/27: Terrelle Pryor was limited Friday and is listed as questionable. Given that he has a 4:25 start, make sure you have another quarterback who starts late just in case you plan on using him.

9/26: Terrelle Pryor has been cleared for practice. He was limited Thursday. However, he practiced without a helmet, and Adam Schefter reported that he's unlikely to play.

9/25: Terrelle Pryor has been cleared for physical activity, but not practice yet.

9/24: Terrelle Pryor, who suffered a concussion Monday night, said that he doesn't remember taking the hit.





Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Running Backs

Le'Veon Bell, Steelers
9/27: Listed as probable.

9/26: Le'Veon Bell practiced fully again Thursday.

9/25: Le'Veon Bell practiced fully Wednesday.

9/24: There's a chance Le'Veon Bell could start Sunday.

Ahmad Bradshaw, Colts
9/27: Ruled out for Sunday's game with a neck injury.

Reggie Bush, Lions
9/26: Reggie Bush practiced fully Thursday.

9/25: Reggie Bush practiced Wednesday.

9/24: Reggie Bush was close to playing last week, so he could be back for the Bears.

Steven Jackson, Falcons
9/27: Ruled out for Sunday's game.

9/24: Steven Jackson could be out 1-3 weeks, according to NFL Network.

Eddie Lacy, Packers
9/24: Eddie Lacy is expected to be back after the Packers' Week 4 bye.

Ray Rice, Ravens
9/27: Ray Rice was limited yet again Friday and will be a game-time decision.

9/26: Ray Rice was limited again in Thursday's practice.

9/25: Ray Rice was limited in Wednesday's practice.

9/24: Ray Rice's hip problem is being regarded as a 2-week injury, so he probably won't play. Stay tuned.



C.J. Spiller, Bills
9/27: Listed as probable. Hello Fred Jackson.
9/25: C.J. Spiller practiced fully Wednesday.


Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Wide Receivers

Danny Amendola, Patriots
9/28: Ruled out for Sunday's game.

9/27: Danny Amendola was limited again Friday. Chris Mortensen, the Boston Herald and ProFootballTalk have both said he's unlikely to play, while the Boston Globe says he will. The Patriots never tell the truth about their injuries, so it's tough to figure this one out.

9/26: Danny Amendola was limited in Thursday's practice.

9/25: Danny Amendola is unlikely to play according to Chris Mortensen and the Boston Herald.

9/24: Danny Amendola will be a game-time decision.

Miles Austin, Cowboys
9/27: Ruled out for Sunday's game.

9/26: Miles Austin-Jones missed practice again Thursday.

9/25: Miles Austin-Jones missed practice Wednesday with a hamstring.

Nate Burleson, Lions
9/24: Out indefinitely after getting into a car accident. This makes Broyels a risk worth taking.

Malcom Floyd, Chargers
9/24: Malcom Floyd is expected to miss a month.

Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers
9/27: Vincent Jackson is listed as questionable after having a limited practice Friday. Risky with Glennon starting.
9/26: Vincent Jackson missed practice again Thursday.

9/25: Vincent Jackson missed Wednesday's practice.

Andre Johnson, Texans
9/27: Andre Johnson told the media that he'll start Sunday.

9/26: Andre Johnson was limited in Thursday's practice.

9/25: Gary Kubiak said Andre Johnson will be a game-time decision because he's very sore.

9/24: Andre Johnson was knocked out of last week's game with a shin injury, but he should be good to go this week.

Lance Moore, Saints
9/28: Lance Moore missed practice again Friday Hello Robert Meachem
9/27: Lance Moore missed practice Thursday and Friday.

Roddy White, Falcons
9/27: Roddy White is listed as questionable. This is why I dont think he is a good play this week.
9/26: Roddy White was limited in Thursday's practice.

9/25: Roddy White missed Wednesday's practice.

9/24: Roddy White played in just half the snaps Sunday because of his ankle injury. Remember, he told his Twitter followers not to start him if he doesn't practice, so we'll see what happens this week.

Mike Williams, Buccaneers
9/27: Mike Williams is listed as questionable after having a limited practice Friday. See Vjax comment.
9/26: Mike Williams missed practice again Thursday.

9/25: Mike Williams missed Wednesday's practice with a hamstring.

Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Tight Ends

Vernon Davis, 49ers
9/26: Vernon Davis told Ian Rapoport that he'll be playing against the Rams.

9/26: The 49ers will decide whether Vernon Davis plays based on how he looks in pre-game warmups.

9/25: Vernon Davis was limited Monday and Tuesday.

9/24: Reports indicated the 49ers were saving Vernon Davis for the Thursday night game.

Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
9/28: Adam Schefter reports Rob Gronkowski won't play.

9/27: Rob Gronkowski was limited again Friday. Chris Mortensen and ProFootballTalk have both said he's unlikely to play, while the Boston Globe says he will. The Patriots never tell the truth about their injuries, so it's tough to figure this one out.

9/26: Rob Gronkowski was limited in Thursday's practice.

9/25: Rob Gronkowski is unlikely to play, according to Chris Mortensen.

9/24: Rob Gronkowski could be a game-time decision.

Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
9/27: Marcedes Lewis will start Sunday.

9/26: Marcedes Lewis was limited in Thursday's practice.

9/25: Marcedes Lewis was limited Wednesday.

9/24: Marcedes Lewis should be able to make his season debut this week.

[boomer]

Here are a few guys who should be quality starts. Thanks to walterfootball for the help with the research.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions (vs. Bears) - 23 Points
330 Passing Yards, 3 Pass TDs, 1 INT.
Ben Roethlisberger just threw for 400-plus yards against the Bears.


Drew Brees, QB, Saints (vs. Dolphins) - 22 Points
320 Passing Yards, 3 Pass TDs, 1 INT.
There's no stopping Drew Brees in the Superdome.


Andrew Luck, QB, Colts (at Jaguars) - 21 Points
220 Passing Yards, 1 Pass TD. 30 Rushing Yards, 1 TD.
The only concern here is that the Colts may sit Andrew Luck if they establish a huge, early lead.


Robert Griffin, QB, Redskins (at Raiders) - 21 Points
310 Passing Yards, 2 Pass TDs, 1 INT. 30 Rushing Yards.
Things seemed to click for Robert Griffin a bit last week. He has an easy matchup versus Oakland.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks (at Texans) - 16 Points
80 Rushing Yards, 2 Catches, 20 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.
Marshawn Lynch should be able to find the end zone this week.


Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals (at Browns) - 13 Points
50 Rushing Yards, 3 Catches, 20 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.
Giovani Bernard could be a solid RB2 in the second half of the season. He's already getting a 50-50 split.


DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys (at Chargers) - 13 Points
90 Rushing Yards, 5 Catches, 40 Receiving Yards.
San Diego is just 23rd against the run.


Chris Johnson, RB, Titans (vs. Jets) - 13 Points
60 Rushing Yards, 1 Catch, 10 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.
The Jets are fifth against the run in terms of YPC, but you can't sit Chris Johnson.


Reggie Bush, RB, Lions (vs. Bears) - 18 Points
60 Rushing Yards, 6 Catches, 60 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.
Reggie Bush should be back. He'll greet a Chicago defense missing Henry Melton.


Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders (vs. Redskins) - 18 Points
80 Rushing Yards, 5 Catches, 40 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.
Washington is 29th versus the rush.


Matt Forte, RB, Bears (at Lions) - 17 Points
100 Rushing Yards, 5 Catches, 40 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.
The Lions are currently 28th against the run. Matt Forte will also do his damage as a pass-catcher.


Trent Richardson, RB, Colts (at Jaguars) - 17 Points
80 Rushing Yards, 4 Catches, 30 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.
Trent Richardson will eventually be a big part of the Colts' offense. Ahmad Bradshaw's absence will help.

Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins (at Raiders) - 17 Points
7 Catches, 110 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.


Brandon Marshall, WR, Bears (at Lions) - 16 Points
8 Catches, 100 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.
There's no reason to think Brandon Marshall won't have a big game.


Victor Cruz, WR, Giants (at Chiefs) - 15 Points
7 Catches, 90 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.
Keep Victor Cruz in your lineup despite his team's struggles.


Marques Colston, WR, Saints (vs. Dolphins) - 15 Points
7 Catches, 90 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.
Marques Colston doesn't have to deal with a shutdown corner for the first time since Week 1.

Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots (at Falcons) - 14 Points
8 Catches, 80 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.
Julian Edelman will continue to function as a low-end WR2 with Danny Amendola out.

Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars (vs. Colts) - 13 Points
6 Catches, 70 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.
Cecil Shorts will get his garbage-time yardage, even with Blaine Gabbert back.

Jordan Cameron, TE, Browns (vs. Bengals) - 12 Points
6 Catches, 60 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.

Kyle Rudolph, TE, Vikings (vs. Steelers) - 10 Points
3 Catches, 40 Receiving Yards, 1 TD.


Tyler Eifert, TE, Bengals (at Browns) - 5 Points
4 Catches, 50 Receiving Yards.


Charles Clay, TE, Dolphins (at Saints) - 5 Points
4 Catches, 50 Receiving Yards.
I'm not buying Charles Clay quite yet. But he is the best guy no one knows right now.

Scott Chandler, TE, Bills (vs. Ravens) - 3 Points
4 Catches, 30 Receiving Yards. add him to the best of the rest right now.

Coby Fleener, TE, Colts (at Jaguars) - 3 Points
4 Catches, 60 Receiving Yards. He is going to emerge this week and start his rise to consistance in the top 10.

[boomer]

Lets look at what some of the other guys are saying about the plays this week.

Tony Romo, Cowboys: No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season than the Chargers. They've played Matt Schaub, Michael Vick and Jake Locker. Vick I'll give you but, come on! Most yards, most touchdowns, highest completion percentage, pick a stat, any stat and San Diego is not good against the pass. Romo has just one interception this year and threw for 298 against what we now know is a very good K.C. defense. Just for kicks, it's worth noting the Chargers also allow the second-most yards after contact to opposing receivers this season. And Dez Bryant plays for the Cowboys.

BAD
Matt Schaub, Texans: He's averaging 6.55 yards per attempt. By comparison, Alex Smith is averaging 6.37. Andre Johnson is banged up and I don't want my fantasy fortunes resting on Matt Schaub's ability to dink and dunk his way to glory against the Seahawks.

Good
Trent Richardson, Colts: See Luck, Andrew. They take the new toy for a test drive against a Jags team allowing 5.2 yards per carry, third most in the league. By the way, Ahmad Bradshaw isn't going away. He'll be a decent flex play this week.
Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars: Colts have given up four rushing touchdowns in three games so far (tied for third most), they allow 4.7 yards per carry and MJD traditionally owns the Colts. I'd be lying if I said I was thrilled with Blaine Gabbert back at quarterback, but whatever, he's scoring in junk time regardless and you can get there with Gabbert just as easy as with Chad Henne. Solid RB2 this week.

DeMarco Murray, Cowboys: Just know I don't feel good about this.

Matt Forte, Bears: A super-obvious name here but putting him in because he's now a legit top-eight running back. This is a good game to use him if you play our Gridiron Challenge Eliminator game, where you play any player you want but can use him only once a season. It's a really fun game, actually. Lions have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, but here's a fun piece of info-tainment from the crack research team here at TMR HQ: Matt Forte has 10 red zone rushes this season, fourth most in the league. I hope you toast me with the drink you'll win with that bar bet.

Darren McFadden, Raiders: Three easy reasons.

1. Washington isn't just terrible against the pass, it's also bad against the run! Only two teams have given up more rushing yards per game.

2. When Terrelle Pryor hands it off on a zone-read, DMC is averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Of course, the whole "will Terrelle Pryor actually play?" thing factors in here, but if Matt Flynn is starting, does that mean they don't hand it off to RunDMC? Right.

3. I'm playing Trent Dilfer this week in the 16-team "War Room" league you've heard many of us discuss ad nauseum. It's a big game this week as we are in the same division. He has McFadden, so you just know he's going off. I went against Eric Decker in this league last week. You're welcome, America.

Bad
Stevan Ridley, Patriots: I still believe in him, actually. And the time to buy low is after this week. As noted in the Bolden bit above, Atlanta is tough to run on (fifth in yards allowed, third-fewest yards after contact) and while I don't expect Bolden or LeGarrette Blount to overtake him, they'll both touch the ball enough to bring Ridley's value outside the top 20. Flex play this week.

Le'Veon Bell, Steelers: Glad he's back. But much like Kermit with Dr. Honeydew and Beaker, caution is the best approach here. Let's see him do something first and get more than 12 carries before I put him in my lineup.

Rashard Mendenhall, Cardinals: No idea what happened last week. Dude averaged 3.2 yards per carry last week in what looked like a good matchup, and lost carries to the likes of Alfonso Smith. Regardless, it doesn't make you feel all happy, like you're at a Dr. Teeth and the Electric Mayem concert or something, now that he goes against Tampa Bay. The Bucs offense is a mess but they can play the run; one of only three teams in the NFL to not have allowed a rushing TD.

Ryan Mathews, Chargers: He ceded the goal-line carry to Ronnie Brown last week. I repeat. To Ronnie Brown. The Chargers coaching staff, when faced with the opportunity to let Ryan Mathews carry the ball on the goal line, turned to each other and decided, in their collective wisdom, that they liked their odds of scoring better with Ronnie Brown. Once again, that's Ronnie Brown.

Good
Pierre Garcon, Washington Football Franchise: Top 10 in the NFL in targets and receptions, the only quarterbacks who have thrown for more than 300 yards in three straight games are Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and ... Robert Griffin III. When RG III throws against the Raiders, it'll be to his guy Garcon. Top-10 play for me this week.

Marques Colston, Saints: Just a pure and total gut call here. Been three games, hasn't really gone off ... think he's due.

Torrey Smith, Ravens: No wide receiver has been targeted more on throws at least 15 yards downfield than Torrey Smith. "Why is this relevant," you ask? Because last week the Bills allowed 247 yards and two touchdowns on receptions more than 15 yards downfield, and their secondary is still banged up. "Oh," you say.

Julian Edelman, Patriots: No team has allowed more receptions or receiving yards to slot receivers than the Falcons this season.

Josh Gordon, Browns: You know how an NFL franchise gets the most for someone in a trade? You feed him the ball over and over and over like he's Animal and you have meat. And as good as the Bengals defense is, it's tied for the fifth-most receptions allowed to opposing wide receivers. Gordon is a top-20 play this week.

Bad
Brandon Pettigrew, Lions: Just putting him here because he is somehow still owned in over 30 percent of leagues. He needs to be owned in zero.

Hope this helps some. we are going to try and start to spot light guys that emerging and available next week. We will also talk about guys that we are ready to cut bait with.