Week 8 Gambling Thread

[VegasCard]

I think everyone took it on the chin last week with some very unpredictable finishes. I was above .500 on Saturday but was a terrible 4-10 Sunday ATS. I did win with ULL and UCF and lost picking Arizona (NFL) to begin this week. Both ULL and UCF were ATS and I picked both on the money line so I've made out good to start this week.

Here's some games I like today:

Minnesota @ Northwestern -12 (NW is a more impressive 4-2 and will bounce back after a couple tough weeks)
Georgia @ Vanderbilt +7 (UGA banged up defensively and Vandy isnt terrible)
Texas Tech @ West Virginia +5 (WVU coming off blowout loss but play better at home)
UConn @ Cincy -14.5 (UConn is just plain awful)
Florida -3 @ Missouri (Florida will do to Mizzou what everyone thought UGA would do. The Franklin loss hurts obviously hurts Missouri)
Ball State -19.5 @ Western Michigan (besides last week Ball St has been great ATS and Western is terrible)
Oregon State -11 @ California (Beavers have been solid after a rough start to the season)
Rice -17 @ New Mexico State (Take the experienced Owls on the road)
USC +3 @ Notre Dame (Trojans will play hard for Orgeron again and ND is overrated)
Oklahoma -21 @ Kansas (Sooners bounce back at the expense of the horrible Jayhawks)
Northern Illinois -15 @ Central Michigan (UNI has a chance to be this years BCS buster)
North Texas -3.5 @ Louisiana Tech (I just think UNT is better and will cover the number)
Georgia State @ Texas State-16 (GSU is 0-6 and barely competitive)

We'll see how it goes. I'll add any other games I pick as the day rolls along.

[VegasCard]

I took Wyoming -6.5 vs Colorado State.

[eagle eye]

I took Mizzou over Florida and gave the 3.
I took Northwestern and gave the 12 points to Minnesota
I'm taking Texas Tech over W Virginia
I'm taking Notre Dame and giving the 3 to USC (SC sucks and an interim coach won't change that)
I'm going to take the 17 points and New Mexico State over Rice (call me sentimental but I know a really sweet girl at NMSU!)

Good luck to all!

[VegasCard]

[quote author=VegasCard link=topic=38658.msg54414#msg54414 date=1382197344]

Minnesota @ Northwestern -12 (L)
Georgia @ Vanderbilt +7 (W)
Texas Tech @ West Virginia +5 (L)
UConn @ Cincy -14.5 (W)
Florida -3 @ Missouri (L)
Ball State -19.5 @ Western Michigan (W)
Oregon State -11 @ California (W)
Rice -17 @ New Mexico State (W)
USC +3 @ Notre Dame (L)
Oklahoma -21 @ Kansas (L)
Northern Illinois -15 @ Central Michigan (W)
North Texas -3.5 @ Louisiana Tech (W)
Georgia State @ Texas State-16 (L)
Colorado State @ Wyoming -6 (L)


[/quote]

I also took these late:
Washington State +39.5 @ Oregon (W)
LSU-10 @ Ole Miss (L)
Utah +4 @ Arizona (L)


That put me finishing at 8-9 ATS for the day on a day filled with upsets, so it couldve been worse. Now its time to have a solid NFL day. I'll post my picks a little later this AM.

[eagle eye]

I did okay this week in college. I went 3-2 but I really shouldn't have taken New Mexico State. That's what happens when you do your thinking with the wrong head. Here's my results this week.

W-Florida @ Missouri (+3) Missouri spanked the Gators good!
W-Texas Tech (-5) @ West Virginia Tech won outright, I didn't agree with VegasCard about WV rebound.
W-USC @ Notre Dame (-3) I don't think ND is overrated and USC is not good.

L-Minnesota @ Northwestern (-12) Minnesota put a smack down on NW in their house. Amazing.
L-Rice @ New Mexico State (+17) I wanted to believe NMSU would cover but at 0-6 it didn't look good. NMSU covers I'm a hero but they didn't and I'm not and so it goes........

Because I was fairly certain about all these game the three wins made my weekend. I wish I had parlayed the Notre Dame and Texas Tech.

How much did folks take it on chin with the losses by Texas A&M, LSU, Northwestern, Clemson and South Carolina? The past two weeks have been a son-of-a-gun to the top 25. It will be really interesting to see the shake up in the rankings this week.

[VegasCard]

NFL picks today:

Plays:

New England at NY Jets +4

I HATE ever picking against Tom Brady but the Pats are coming off a very emotional last second win over New Orleans and the Jets played them close in Foxboro. The home team in this series has won 6 of 8 and NY is 16-3 ATS at home following a loss in the last 19 games. Reluctantly Ill take the Jets.

Buffalo +7 at Miami

Buffalo has been scrappy. They've stayed within a TD of every opponent they've faced this season except for one. Miami has only defeated one team by more than 7 points all season. Other odd trends that favor Buffalo: Miami 2-11 ATS as favorites of more than 3 points since 2008 & Miami 8-24 ATS at home versus teams with losing records since 2003. Give me Buffalo unless the line drops less than a TD.

Houston at Kansas City -6.5

I've taken the bait on Houston all season and they've let me down each time. Every week I think will be the week they wake up and play but yet they still sit at 0-6 ATS for the season. Starting a rookie QB against the undefeated Chiefs on the road shouldn't be the week it starts. Give me KC. Other odd trends for this matchup: Texans are 34-18 ATS after two or more consecutive losses. Kubiak is 1-6 ATS as an underdog the week following being a favorite as the Texans HC & Kansas City is 27-12 ATS in the month of October since 2002.

Cleveland +10 at Green Bay

The Browns have been playing better the past 3 weeks and 10 points is a high number. So high it seems like a trap too good to be true type number but I'm sticking with Cleveland unless the number drops late. Odd trends for matchup: Aaron Rodgers is 45-27 ATS as the GB starter since 2009. Browns are 17-9 ATS after giving up 30+ points the week prior since 2005 & Green Bay is 21-8 ATS at home since 2010.

Tampa Bay +7 at Atlanta

Roddy White is hobbled and Julio Jones is out. Steven Jackson is past his prime and cant stay on the field to help with the ATL running game. Tampa Bay isn't much better and have QB issues but giving them a TD seems too high. Give me the Bucs. Odd trends for the matchup: Matt Ryan 18-9 ATS coming off a loss, 25-16 ATS at home and Falcons have won 7-9 from Tampa.


May Play:

Chicago at Washington +1

Skins are due a breakout game. Like the Texans I keep waiting for it to happen and have been left disappointed. This may be their last chance. Odd Trends for matchup: Redskins are 12-6 ATS after losing to the Cowboys since 1997. Jay Cutler is 30-54 ATS excluding games on MNF.

San Diego at Jacksonville +7.5

This goes strictly against my bet against the Jags theory but Jacksonville will not go winless and they showed signs of life last week at Denver. San Diego is coming off a short week where they played a solid emotional game vs the Colts. Could this be the week for Jacksonville???

The rest:

Cincinnati at Detroit -2.5 (Give me the Lions at home)
Dallas +2.5 at Philadelphia (Cowboys are just better)
St. Louis at Carolina -7 (The enigma of Carolina. I think they've woken up and are at home)
San Francisco -3.5 at Tennessee (49ers are getting hot)
Baltimore +1 at Pittsburgh (Steelers have burned me one too many times)
Denver -6 at Indianapolis (Cant bet against Peyton returning to Indy but Andrew Luck is 6-0 ATS in his career coming off a loss)
Minnesota at NY Giants -3 (Minny is 9-20 ATS outdoors since 2008 and breaking in a new QB)

[Mbooyazz]

My favorite game of the week is by far the Chiefs at -7 over Houston. I will save most of my dollars for that game in particular. I see Kansas City winning that game by 17-20 points.....all things being equal. You saw what happened to Denver last week against the Jags, so anything can happen.

Here are my preferred games this week:

Under 43.5 Pats/Jets game L
Over 48.5 Bears/Skins game W
Carolina -7 vs Rams W
Chiefs -7 vs Houston

I will probably 3 team the under, over, and carolina game, and dump a little extra on Carolina to more than cover the 3 teamer. I'm more confident in them than the over/unders. I will empty the rest of my account out on the Chiefs, and let the cards fall where they may.

Rest of the games:

Atlanta -6.5 W
Detroit -3 L
Buffalo +6 W
Dallas +3 W
Washington +1
San Diego -7.5 W
Cleveland +9.5
Tennessee +3.5
Baltimore +1

[eagle eye]

I didn't have a good feel about any of the games today and for the most part I was right. If I would have taken anyone I would have given the points and opted for the Packers and I would have been right it's just hard to give that many points in an NFL game.

I sure hope Mbooyazz didn't lose too much on the Houston game. It was a nice debut for Case Keenum against a good team in their home stadium. A stadium that's almost as loud as Seattle. Brutal for an inexperienced QB.

We have one less winless team with the Redskins upsetting the Bears despite an awesome effort by Josh McCown.

Bodacious weekend of football and I ain't over yet. I'll take the Colts with the crap in the news about Jim Irsay's comments I see Peyton wanting to kick Irsay's ass by putting a smackdown on his Colts.

Colts (+6) vs Indianapolis I'm taking the Colts.