Week 9 Gambling Thread

[VegasCard]

Early game likes:

Vanderbilt +17.5 @ Texas A&M (L)
Ball State -10 @ Akron (W)
Connecticut @ Central Florida -24 (W)
Louisvillle -21 @ South Florida (W)
Nebraska -10 @ Minnesota (L)
Northwestern +4 @ Iowa (L)
Michigan State -8 @ Illinois (W)


I'll post more later.

[eagle eye]

I'm taking the Aggies and giving the +17. I may find a hedge bet here because I'm worried about Manziel's shoulder. I think he's playing because he's still chasing the Heisman but I worry about his long term health. This is a very risky move for him. Vandy did beat Georgia last week but it's not the same Georgia that started the season. Injuries have depleted their roster, especially on the offensive side, so it may not be as impressive a win as you would first think.

I'm taking Minnesota and points. They beat Northwestern last week at Northwestern and they are home against the Cornhuskers. I'm not real confident here so I won't be putting much on this one.

I'm taking Texas Tech and 6.5 points. OU has looked really bad against Texas and Kansas and Kansas sucks. The Red Raiders are ripe to win this outright and set up a showdown of unbeatens with Baylor.

My last pick is one I am rather confident in. Much is made of So Carolina QB Connor Shaw being injured last week but it was with 5 minutes left in the game. I'm taking the Vols and the 28 points against 'Bama. 'Bama will win but I think Tennessee will cover the spread.

Vanderbilt vs Texas A&M (-17)
Connecticut @ Central Florida (-24)
Nebraska @ Minnesota (+10)
Louisvillle @ South Florida (-21) Louisville just ain't that good
North Carolina State @ Florida State (-32.5)
Texas Tech (+6.5) @ Oklahoma
Tennessee (+28) @ Alabama
Baylor (-35) @ Kansas
Texas @ TCU (-2.5)
Idaho @ Ole Miss (-41) I'm a buyer for Ole Miss. Relevant again-not since Eli was there.
Tennessee (+28) @ Alabama

[VegasCard]

2:30 game picks:

Buffalo -3 @ Kent State (W)
Boston College +5.5 @ UNC (L)
Tulsa @ Tulane +3 (W)
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -6.5 (W)
UTEP @ Rice -18.5 (W)
Tennessee @ Alabama -28 (W)
Clemson -17 @ Maryland (L)

[eagle eye]

My standings so far:

Vanderbilt vs Texas A&M (-17) - TAMU won 56-24 W for me!
Connecticut @ Central Florida (-24) - UCF won 62-17 W another win!
Nebraska @ Minnesota (+10) - Minnesota won outright 34-23. W
Louisvillle @ South Florida (-21) - Louisville IS that good. They won 34-3. My first loss. L
North Carolina State @ Florida State (-32.5) - Fla St up by 32 in the 4th
Texas Tech (+6.5) @ Oklahoma - OU up 14-7 at the half
Tennessee (+28) @ Alabama - Bama up 42-10 in the 4th
Baylor (-35) @ Kansas - plays at 7 pm
Texas @ TCU (-2.5) - plays at 7 pm
Idaho @ Ole Miss (-41) - plays at 7:30 pm

[VegasCard]

More of my pics today:

Duke +13 @ V Tech (W)
NC State @ Florida State -35 (L)
Baylor -35.5 @ Kansas (W)
Georgia State @ Louisiana-Monroe -15.5 (W)
North Texas -12.5 @ Southern Mississippi (W)
UCLA +24 @ Oregon (L)
FAU @ Auburn -23.5 (W)
Texas +2.5 @ TCU (W)
Arizona -13 @ Colorado (W)
Penn State +16.5 @ Ohio State (L)
Stanford -4 @ Oregon State (W)

[VegasCard]

I finished up with an overall record of 17-8 ATS yesterday. If only I could get my NFL picks to heat up! I'm going to try to bring that record up again today but we'll see. I'll post my pics a little later this AM.

[VegasCard]

NFL Week 8 picks:

PLAYS:

Dallas +3 @ Detroit

This is a game that Dallas seems to ALWAYS have a let down but for some reason they feel different this season. Ill go with the positive momentum and take the Cowboys and the points. Odd matchup trend: Dallas is 13-8 ATS after facing the Eagles since 2000.

Buffalo @ New Orleans -12

Ive been riding and winning with the Bills this season and this is a big number but I think the Saints are due an offensive explosion at home. Odd matchup trends: Bills are 6-25 ATS after playing Miami since 1998, Saints are 29-13 ATS as home favorites since 2007, Drew Brees is 23-14 ATS coming off a loss, Saints 5-11 ATS as a double digit favorite under Sean Payton

Pittsburgh @ Oakland +3

I'm not buying the Steelers win last week, theyve burned me one too many times this season. Oakland I feel is underrated and can play some defense if they arent facing Denver. They could win this game outright. Odd matchup trends: Steelers are 13-23 ATS as road favorites since 07, Steelers are 6-17 ATS as road favorites under Tomlin, Raiders are 16-27 ATS in October since 01.

Seattle -11.5 @ St. Louis

St. Louis is young and beat up, Seattle is one of the top 3 teams in the NFC. Give me the Hawks in a national game with an extra day to adjust to the time zone change. Odd matchup trends: Seattle has won 14 of 16 from Rams, Seattle is 19-31 ATS on the road since 2006.


May Play these:

Atlanta @ Arizona -2.5

Atlanta is still banged up. Odd matchup trends: Cardinals are 20-9 ATS at home when favorite by less than 3 points since 2007.

Washington @ Denver -11.5

Denver should be fired up coming off their first loss and they're back playing at Mile High. Odd matchup trends: Peyton Manning is 3-7 ATS vs non divisional opponents as a home favorite of more than 12 points.


The Rest:

Miami @ New England -7 (Miami plays tight games but NE coming off a loss and Brady getting some offensive weapons back)
SF -16 vs Jax (I wont go against my trend of picking against Jax anymore)
NY Giants +5.5 @ Philly (coin flipper)
Cleveland +8 @ Kansas City (Kansas City seems to play close games and this is a lot of points)
NY Jets @ Cincy -5 (Bengals at home and a pretty good team)
Minnesota @ Green Bay -9.5 (a lot of points for a division rival matchup but Minnesota is hot garbage right now)

[eagle eye]

My college week went okay. Ended up 5-5 in college. Need a nice rebound in the pros today.

Vanderbilt vs Texas A&M (-17) - TAMU won 56-24 W for me!
Connecticut @ Central Florida (-24) - UCF won 62-17 W another win!
Nebraska @ Minnesota (+10) - Minnesota won outright 34-23. W
Louisvillle @ South Florida (-21) - Louisville IS that good. They won 34-3. My first loss. L
North Carolina State @ Florida State (-32.5) - Fla State won by 32. Sometimes that 1/2 point will kill ya. L
Texas Tech (+6.5) @ Oklahoma - OU won by 8. I sad for Tech. L
Tennessee (+28) @ Alabama - Vols just couldn't hang with 'Bama. L
Baylor (-35) @ Kansas - Baylor scored late to cover the spread. W
Texas @ TCU (-2.5) - Okay, I'm a believer. Mack Brown has found something. UT 30-7 over TCU L
Idaho @ Ole Miss (-41) - Ole Miss by 45 and covered! W

[eagle eye]

These are my plays today in the NFL.

Dallas +3 @ Detroit
Buffalo @ New Orleans -12
Seattle +11.5 @ St Louis
Atlanta +2.5 @ Arizona (I just don't trust Carson Palmer)
San Francisco +16 @ Jax (Not really a home game for Jax since they are in London)
Minnesota @ Green Bay +9.5

Sometimes the 1/2 point is murder. The wise guys really know what they are doing. Some big spreads for the pros but I like all six of my picks. I hope the football gods agree with me!

[VegasCard]

Holy cow I was PERFECT today on my NFL picks. Hit a 6-teamer in the early kickoffs and a 3-teamer in the evening kickoffs. Two more games for a perfect week and that NEVER happens!

[eagle eye]

So far I've won the following

Dallas covered and I won though I'd gladly lose the bet for a Cowboys win.
New Orleans covered the -12 and then some giving me the W.
I told you I didn't trust Carson Palmer. Arizona beat Atlanta by 14. 1st loss.
San Francisco won by 32 easily covering and giving me win #3.


I'll know the Vikings/Packers game later.
Seattle and St Louis tomorrow night.

3-1 so far.