Astros Off Season Thread

It's time to gather around the "hot stove" and warm your hands and cast a casual look at the Astros and the goings on as they prepare for 2014.

 

> Former Astros fan favorite, Brad Ausmus, has been named the manager of the Detroit Tigers following the retirement of Jim Leyland. Good guy, I hope he does well despite the fact he has never managed at any level prior to getting the Detroit job.

 

> Astros 2012 2nd round pick SS Nolan Fontana is playing in the Arizona Fall League to help him refine his bat. He has always been a tough out and he gets more than his fair share of walks but he knows the path to the bigs depends on how he HITS the ball. Last season in High Class A California league he hit .258 for the season with 102 walks in 104 games giving him a .415 OBP. I have no problem with a player being patient at the plate. In fact he could teach a lot of the guys on last season's roster a thing or two about being selective seeing as how that bunch was the poster roster of crappy plate appearances leading the league in strikeouts. Fontana is sandwiched between current SS Jonathan Villar and 2012 first round pick Carlos Correa. Fontana says he doesn't worry about that so much he just wants to get better and it looks like he'll move up the ladder next season to AA Corpus Christi. It's nice to have a deep well of talent in the organization.

 

> Mark Appel has moved back to Houston permenantly and has begun workouts along with a handful of Major and Minor league propects with the Astros strength and conditioning coach Jake Beiting beginning last week. Speculation is that Appel will likely begin the 2014 season at AA Corpus Christi and with the talent at the starting pitching spot the Astros may not rush Appel up to the bigs opting instead to let him season in the minors for all of 2013. The success of Michael Wacha gives all prospects hope they are just a small step away from the Major Leagues.

 

> Pitcher Erik Bedard will not be with the Astros in 2014. Last Thursday he filed for free agency. Bedard did a good job for Houston all things considered so I hope he gets picked up by a good team.

 

> The Astros signed a pitcher from the Detroit Tigers, Darin Downs, off waivers. The 28-year-old posted a 4.84 ERA in 29 games this year (19 earned runs in 35 1/3 innings) across two Major League stints with Detroit. He struck out 37 hitters, limiting lefties to a .219 average. Between Triple-A Toledo and Class A West Michigan, Downs had a 2.16 ERA over 16 2/3 innings. He owns a career record of 2-3 and has struck out 57 hitters in 56 Major League innings. (previous info from Astros.com)

 

> Astros fans should be happy to know that owner Jim Crane plans to open his wallet a little bit in 2014. The Astros finished the 2013 season with an embarrassingly low $13 MM payroll but the Astros front office knew it was going to be a rebuilding year and the Astros dealt away the last of the their veteran players for draft picks and prospects which lowered the payroll to the level it was at the end of the season. There was no reason to spend big money on free agents when you knew it was throwing good money away. Now, the Astros have identified a crop of young players to build around for next season and the front office boys plan to supplement holes in their roster with free agents. Apparently, it's time to play to win. Good news for win-starved fans. The Astros need some good bats in the lineup. Guys who can hit for a little power, are patient enough to take their share of walks and most importantly hit for average and don't strike out so damn much. They also need some help in the bullpen including a closer. I really look for Houston to be a lot better next season. Jim Crane told MLB.com that he expects that the payroll should be up in the $50-$60 MM range. That's a little more like it AND they have the No 1 pick in the draft for the 3rd year in a row.

MLBTradeRumors.com has a list of the top 50 Free Agents with projections of where they will end up. They have #32 Frenando Rodney and #46 Jesse Crain projected to end up in Houston. Other players they see Houston being in the mix for are #3 Shin-Soo Choo, #5 Masahiro Tanaka, #6 Ervin Santana, #7 Matt Garza, #11 Ubaldo Jimenez, #26 Joaquin Benoit, #27 Scott Feldman, #28 Kendrys Morales, #30 Josh Johnson, #41 Nate McLouth, and #44 Joe Smith. As you can see pitching heavy. If we are going to give an OF a 100 million dollar contract, I'd rather be linked to Ellsbury than Choo though...just personal preference...either way they are both Scott Boras clients so they will get monster deals. Tanaka is intriguing to me...he's only 25 and not said to be at the level of Yu Darvish but scouts think he could step right in to a teams rotation as a #2 (probably a #1 in Houston)...what I don't like is what Houston would have to pay to even get negotiating rights...reportedly in the 75 million dollar range...can't see Luhnow pulling that trigger just yet...especially with the trend of Japanese pitching imports being so-so in the majors (Darvish is the exception to this rule). Josh Johnson is a guy that I would like to see in Houston if he would sign an incentive laiden deal...he was dominate for a 3-4 year span but can't shake off the injury bug since then. Another thing to remember is if the Free Agent's former team gave a qualifying offer that was reflected then Houston would have to forfeit thier 2nd pick (40th overall) if they sign that player. This years draft is supposed to be pretty deep so Luhnow and Co. may shy away from those players as well. Staying with the draft for one comment even though it's not part of the off season, there is a kid from Shepherd High School which is right up 59 outta Houston named Tyler Kolek that is very high on draft boards. He's 6'-5" and 250 lbs throwing in the upper 90s into triple digits with a plus breaking ball...better believe Houston scouts will make the short trip up the highway to watch him and if somethin happens to Rodon then Kolek may the pick...and he could possibly give a hometown discount and allow Houston to be creative a la 2012...but I wouldn't pass on Rodon unless somethin catastrophic happens

I would rather Choo over Ellsbury. We already have speed on this team and not much power. I don't think we will get either one. What's the point in spending large amounts of money on a guy when the team is still three years away from competing on a consistent basis. We will sign some good bullpen help and maybe get Ubaldo Jiminez. They will also be very active in the foreign markets in Japan and Latin America.

 

With the Astros reporting that Jim Crane is willing to boost the payroll to $60 MM I think that maybe, with the core players to build around, I don't think the front office is thinking about another 100 loss team. The veteran free agents coming in shouldn't be considered trade fodder in June and July. I believe they will be looking for solid guys who will protect the young guys in the batting order and provide more consistant offense. They don't need another Carlos Pena and they don't need another Chris Carter. We saw what that got us. I know people liked Carter and he hit in the clutch a lot but he struck out way too much, as did the whole lineup. Why? Because there wasn't anyone opposing pitchers were afraid of to burn them except Jose Altuve. You put some veteran bats in the lineup who hit for average, take their walks, and drive in runs. In 2013 pitchers didn't have to pitch around anybody because there wasn't an Ellsbury or Choo in the lineup. With the emergence of Jason Castro, the continued success of Jose Altuve and the potential Jonathan Villar showed two or three solid hitters would do wonders for the whole batting order. Plus, adding players who understand and perform plate discipline rubs off on the rest of the lineup. That's why a guy like Nolan Fontana would be a great player to have in the lineup. Unfortunately, he's not ready for the bigs just yet.

Preferably I don't want to see Ellsbury or Choo in Houston's outfield...was just saying if I had to be picked 1 to be linked to I would go with Ellsbury. Offensively they are turn out somewhat equal...Choo will get on base a little more and has a little more power but Ellsbury will put the ball in play more often, strike out less steal a few more bases. Defensively Ellsbury plays a much better CF...in his 7 seasons he has a "runs saved above agerage" of +27, while Choo is at -13 in 9 seasons. I get what your at Big T about needing power more but Choo's career high in HRs is only 22 and he only hit 21 in that little leage field in Cincinnati this year...of course minus Ellsbury's 2011 season where he hit 32 HR and 46 doubles his next best career highs are 9 and 31 respectivley (this season in 134 games). But 2011 shows the potential for that kind of production is there is just a matter getting back to it. All that being said i'll say again i don't really want either one. A combo of Springer in CF/RF with Barnes playing some CF, L.J. Hoes playing some RF, and Grossman in LF would work for me. There is one guy that might be another guy I wouldn't be surprised to see Houston sign and that is CF Chris Young. Hometown guy who has played 23 games in Houston over his career to the tune of a .392 average (38/107) with 8 HRs and 7 doubles...now hes coming off a bad year but I'm sure Luhnow is working on some mathmatical equation to figure out what he could do for Houston...plus hes only 30 (feels like he should be 40 by now) and could still have a few good seasons left in him

I'll take 22 homers. Nobody even scared 20 this past season. Besides, in this post 'roid era 50 HR's are getting pretty scarce.

I think that getting Chris Young is a very definite possibility, but I wouldn't expect to much from him if they did. I think the Astros think that they have the Power and RBI's coming up through the minors right now with Springer and Singleton so they are mostly worried about pitching. I bet 30 million of the available money will be spent on pitching in one form or another.

Since we've been riffing on player moves and what-ifs about next season's roster I have a question to pose. What, in your opinion, are the top 3 things Houston needs to address in terms of free agent signings? For example, do they need veteran starter to lead the pitching staff? Do this need a big hitting first baseman or right fielder or both? Is third base a position of need, especially if he has a good stick? Put yourself in either Jim Crane or Jeff Luhnow's shoes and pinpoint the biggest needs you have to address this off season.

1. Bullpen

2. Bullpen

3. Bullpen

 

In all seriousness though back of the bullpen help has got to be priority one. Secondly, I would say a SP to supplement the young arms we have now. Then I would say a verteran RF that won't cost an arm and a leg. To me Matt Dominguez is the guy at 3rd..he just turned 24 at the end of August and showed some pop this year...the average is still a question mark but like I said, he's still a young player and is still developing.

IDK if you go for an average everyday outfielder. With LJ Hoes, Robbie Grossman, and Brandon Barnes I think you give those guys as many shots as possible next season. Maybe a backup outfielder but not a starter.

 

First priority is Bullpen, then a starter (hopefully Ubaldo Jimeniz), and a short stop as I just don't know if Villar is ready, and another Catcher as Corporan is not what his number said he was last year and once again I don't think Max Stassi is ready.

Speaking of Matt Dominguez, he was awarded the Defensive Player of the Year Award for the Astros. Dominguez, in his first full season in the Major Leagues, started 149 games at third base in 2013 and ranked fourth in the American League at his position with a .963 fielding percentage. He committed 16 errors in 431 total chances. Good job!

 

The Rangers and Astros will play exhibition games in the Alamodome on March 28th and 29th next year as part of the second H-E-B Big League Weekend.

 

Here's an article from Astros.com about pitcher Matt Heidenreich getting a make over of his mechanics in the Arizona Fall League.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/astros-minor-league-righty-matt-heidenreich-undergoing-makeover-in-afl?ymd=20131107&content_id=63762020&vkey=news_hou

 

Here's an article about Delino DeShields Jr and his evolution in the Arizona Fall League.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/astros-prospect-delino-deshields-jr-becoming-more-versatile-in-arizona?ymd=20131106&content_id=63735792&vkey=news_hou

 

Last but not least, the referendum to renovate the Astrodome was voted down. Another referendum could be introduced but it is very possible that the 'Dome will be demolished. Once and forever known as the "Eighth Wonder of the World" when it was built in 1965 it has outlived it's usefullness and it sitting next to Reliant Stadium dwarfed by the new stadium's size and rusting away. Who knows what will eventually happen to the 'Dome but if it's gone more than one person will definitely shed a tear.

 

 

Been meaning to post that Jimmy Paredes was out on waivers and claimed by Miami...really wish he would have been able to figure out major league pitching but it just never happened.

Maybe a change of scenery will do him some good.

Some Astros notes for this week.

 

> 3B Jonathan Meyers is working on his offense this fall in the Arizona Fall League. Meyers is superior fielder but his career arc will depend on how he develops as a hitter. He played well in AA Corpus Christi this season and he improved his hitting somewhat but he retooling his approach and working on some things the coaches see as avenues of improvement. They want his BA and walks up which means he will need to learn some plate discipline and improve some mechical issues. Meyers does hit well against left handers but to be an MLB starter he will have to face both righties and lefties. Meyers understands he's got a guy in Matt Dominguez that is forging a place with the Astros ahead of him and a guy in Rio Ruiz in A ball who is rated the Astros best third base prospect behind him. Meyer says that quality throughout the organization is a good thing because the pressure to get better will make everyone better.

 

> The Astros will be sending reps to meet with top draft prospect Carlos Rodon possibly as early as this week. The Astros have several players scheduled for visits but Rodon is the consensus top prospect. Team says that while Rodon is the cream of this coming year's draft crop he still is going into his junior year at NC State and some injury concerns make it necessary for Houston to do their due diligence in deciding who they select with that No 1 pick. They certainly don't want to waste the pick on a guy they can't sign. In 2013 Houston scouted 6 other players before deciding on Mark Appel. Hopefully Rodon will be that guy everyone expects AND he decides to sign with Houston.

 

> P Jonah Dufek was moved to the bullpen this past season and the move has turned out to be good one. Between A-Advanced Lancaster and Corpus Christi Dufek ended up 2013 with a 9-2 record and a 3.14 ERA in 67 2/3 innings giving up 64 hits with 74 strike outs. Dufek is 6'5" with a mid ninties fastball, a killer slider and a change up he has been working to refine in the Arizona Fall League. He has a real chance to move up to AAA OKC next season with signs pointing to a move up to the bigs not far away. It sounds like Dufek is in line for a closers role and I hope he makes it.

 

> The Astros have faith in GM Jeff Luhnow's plan for the building the franchise. It actually started with new owner Jim Crane's overall plan when he took over the team two years ago. Here's an good article praising the patience and discipline exhibited by Astros management while the big club suffered through some dismal seasons allowing their plan to come to fruition.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/richard-justice-astros-confident-in-general-manager-jeff-luhnows-long-term-vision?ymd=20131112&content_id=63882478&vkey=news_hou

Here's a link to an article from Astros.com about some news and notes about the team. First a note about how Hall of Fame 1st baseman Andre Dawson believes Jeff Bagwell belongs in the Hall of Fame. Bo Porter talks about how the team will be looking to add a good outfield bat, relief pitching and a veteran starter to its 2014 roster. Last but not least Chris Young talks about he, a Houston native, would love playing in his home town.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20131115&content_id=63954122&notebook_id=63952008&vkey=notebook_hou&c_id=hou

A couple of roster moves today. Astros claimed middle infielder Ryan Jackson from the Cardinals. The Chicago White Sox claimed Ulitity man Jake Elmore from Houston. Pitcher John Eli was released and OF J.D. Martinez was outrighted to AAA OKC

 

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article/hou/astros-claim-ryan-jackson-off-waivers-from-cardinals?ymd=20131120&content_id=64073978&vkey=news_hou

The Astros have added three players to their 40 man roster this past week to protect them from being claimed in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft next month. P Luis Cruz, OF Domingo Santana and P Asher Wojcieckowski will go to spring training next March as a result of the move. Among the players that will be left exposed in the Rule 5 Draft are outfielders J.D. Martinez and Austin Wates; former first-round pick Jiovanni Mier; pitchers Eric Berger, Jake Buchanan, Matt Heidenreich, Eric Berger, Ross Seaton, Jason Stoffel and Alex Sogard; and slugger Telvin Nash. The addition of Cruz, Santana and Wojcieckowski brings the total on the 40 man squad to 37 so the Astros still have time to make more moves if they wish.

 

Here is a link from Astros.com detailing a law suit current owner Jim Crane is pursuing against former owner Drayton McClain as well as ComCast Sports and NBCUniversal. Sounds like Crane is playing hardball over a proposed fraud over the over inflated value of the TV deal with ComCast.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/jim-crane-elaborates-on-suit-against-former-astros-owner-drayton-mclane?ymd=20131122&content_id=64144632&vkey=news_hou

 

The 14th pick in the 2012 draft was an infielder from Dartmouth named Joe Sclafani has been moving up the ranks of the Astros minor league system. He is currently playing in the Australian Baseball League to hone his fielding skill set. He has already demonstrated a good eye at the plate. In 2013 with the Lancaster (California) Jayhawks Sclafani In 92 games was indeed formidable, hitting .302 with seven home runs and 53 RBIs. He scored 81 runs, belted 28 doubles, and was 16-for-19 in stolen base attempts for a team that finished the regular season, 82-58 -- tops in the California League's South Division. He was drafted in the same draft as No 1 pick Carlos Correa and Nolan Fontana in the second round Sclafani realized he needed to become as versatile as possible. He can play at short, 2B and 3B which makes him a very valuable asset. It is another illustration about just how deep and talented the Astros are becoming in the minor leagues.

 

Delino DeShields Jr was named No 17 out of the top 20 players in the Arizona Fall League. DeShields is working on making the transition from 2B to center field and his speed and athletic ablilty with some surprising pop in his bat make him potentially a great prospect as a lead off man in the Astros future.

Well the Astros have made their first significant move this off season. Houston acquired CF Dexter Fowler from Colorado in exchange for CF Brandon Barnes and SP Jordan Lyles

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/astros-trade-for-dexter-fowler-send-brandon-barnes-jordan-lyles-to-rockies?ymd=20131203&content_id=64362746&vkey=news_hou

 

Lyles is still young but continued to struggle pitching into the 5th at times...however he would go out every 5 or 6 starts and show potential to be a quality pitcher. With Houston using a 6-man rotation last season and possibly looking for a starter this winter some one was bound to go.

 

Barnes kinda popped up outta no where and had a decent rookie season...his glove definitely kept his name on the lineup card for most of the season...I was eager to see if his bat would develop enough for him to stick until the wave of young talent came through

 

I'll have to do my research on Fowler to see how his home/road splits were to get a better gauge on what we got and if I like the trade...assuming this means we may not be after Choo now

 

Houston will also receive a PTBNL

I love this trade. I have been a Dexter Fowler fan for a while now. He's not a guy that's going to wow you with his offense, but he is a good offensive player. He has speed, a great defensive glove, and he is 27 years old. What more do you want. Great move by the Stros.

I'm going to withhold my judgement of this deal. I liked Lyles and I'm surprised Houston couldn't get more for him. I could take or leave Barnes and if Houston had gotten Fowler for Barnes and given Colorado a PTBNL it would have been a better deal. That said, I don't hate the deal and we do have a lot of pitching coming up.

I'm not sure how much upside Fowler gives Houston since they anticipate getting George Springer making a bid for the bigs this coming season. Getting a somewhat below average hitter to play center field and hit leadoff doesn't excite me. The fact that his OBP is just .369 doesn't say he works enough walks. He may have speed but 19 stolen bases in 2013 doesn't speak well for his base running skills. I hate to be a negative Nate here but his '13 numbers don't support the nice numbers he put up in 2012. It makes me worry a bit.

 

One thing gives me hope here. J D Martinez decided to play winter ball and he's worked hard on his hitting. The following article from Astros.com shows that J D isn't going away quietly. When healthy Martinez has played pretty well and if he is turning a corner here it won't hurt my feelings one bit if he finally has a breakout year in 2014.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/jd-martinez-leading-astros-winter-ball-contingent?ymd=20131202&content_id=64331906&vkey=news_hou

Well here are the home road splits for Fowler's career

 

Home - .298/.395/.485 (1129 ABs), 27 HR, 33 3B, 177 BB, 261 Ks

Away - .241/.333/.361 (1119 ABs), 13 HR, 20 3B, 148 BB, 327 Ks

 

Even his best season (2012) when he hit .300 on the season he only hit .262 on the road vs .332 at Coors Field

 

Not sure we got more than what Barnes did at the plate aside from a little more speed and patience...but with everything Houston baseball, I'll patiently wait to see what becomes of it. Hoping for the best.

 

Speaking of the future, here is an article about Carlos Rodon working on his Change-Up to go with the Fastball-Slider combo

 

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/rodon-has-all-the-makings-of-top-pick-in-2014-draft?ymd=20131204&content_id=64383366

 

And here is the first edition of 2014 Draft Rankings...alot of interesting names in the 30-50 range for our 2nd and 3rd picks (32 and 40)

 

 

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=draft

Reports say the Astros have signed 30 year old Scott Feldman to a 3 year 30 Million dollar contract. probably would have rather seen it in the 20-25 million dollar range but its not a terrible signing at 30. He has a good sinker and should get a fair amount of ground balls, which falls into what the front office has been bulding. Also, he should be a good veteran presence for the younger guys in the rotation and bullpen as he has experience in both (131 starts and 103 relief appearences).

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/astros-scott-feldman-agree-to-three-year-contract?ymd=20131206&content_id=64443168&vkey=news_hou

Yea, to get a decent veteran pitcher to join this team, you were going to have to over pay them a bit. I think our biggest acquisitions are yet to come. I think the Stros are going to make a big splash in the Japanese market this year.

This isn't a sexy pickup but Feldman will be a good anchor for the rotation. He eats up a lot of innings and being a ground ball pitcher you don't worry so much about him being tagged with homers. I believe his ERA is 3.84 which ain't too bad. He wasn't signed to be the ace of the staff but a solid #3. I like this move more than the Fowler deal. In an interview with Feldman he said he checked out Houston and found that the arrow is pointing up for the Astros with a top notch farm system that features players who can make a real impact in the near future and for years to come. He also said he likes the ownership and GM and the coaching staff. 10mm a year is not bad for a veteran pitcher all things considered. It's interesting to note that with the combined salaries of Feldman and Fowler is greater than the team payroll at the end of this past season.

I'm surprised that nobody has posted this earlier but the Astros have signed a former player to bolster their bullpen. Chan Qualls, who was with the Astros from 2000 when the Astros drafted him until he was traded to Arizona after the 2007 season. He was part of a pretty strong bullpen that was part of the 2005 World Series team that included Brad Lidge and Dan Wheeler. Qualls was with the Diamondbacks until July of 2010 when he was traded to Tampa Bay. Since 2011 Qualls has spent time in San Diego, Philadelphia, New York Yankees, Pittsburgh and Miami. He signed a 2 year deal for $6mm with a $3.5mm option. Here's more detailed article from Astros.com Detailing Qualls career since leaving Houston. The only troubling thing may be his age, 35 but as you will see from the article he is still an effective pitcher.

 

http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article/hou/chad-qualls-returns-to-astros-to-fortify-bullpen?ymd=20131207&content_id=64477208&vkey=news_hou

 

In other news it seems like the Astros are taking a serious look at former closer Jose Veras. For his part Veras is excited to come back to Houston. The Astros seem to have had conversations with slugging first baseman Michael Morse, who has had a couple of down years, as well as pitchers Jesse Crain and Chad Gaudin. They have also inquired about outfielder Grady Sizemore who hasn't played since 2011 while he recovers from back and knee surgeries.

 

The MLB Winter Meetings began Monday and GM Jeff Luhnow has not been sitting on his hands. There is a video with an interview with Luhnow detailing the Astros plans during the Winter Meetings. There's also an accompanying article with info about the prospects the Astros are pursuing.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/hou/free-agent-relief-pitcher-jose-veras-wants-to-return-to-astros?ymd=20131210&content_id=64551726&vkey=news_hou