Jeff Sagarin NCAA football ratings

The pre-season Sagarin Ratings of SLC teams plus South Alabama, Texas State and UTSA.

 

College Football 2011 Starting Ratings the BCS uses the ELO_CHESS from here

 

HOME ADVANTAGE=  3.08           RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  ELO_CHESS   |  PREDICTOR  
126  South Alabama        AA =  58.33    0   0    0.00(   0)    0   0  |    0   0  |   58.33  126 |   58.33  126
145  McNeese State        AA =  55.29    0   0    0.00(   0)    0   0  |    0   0  |   55.29  145 |   55.29  145
141  Stephen F. Austin    AA =  55.54    0   0    0.00(   0)    0   0  |    0   0  |   55.54  141 |   55.54  141
149  Central Arkansas     AA =  53.87    0   0    0.00(   0)    0   0  |    0   0  |   53.87  149 |   53.87  149
167  Lamar                AA =  49.96    0   0    0.00(   0)    0   0  |    0   0  |   49.96  167 |   49.96  167
168  Sam Houston State    AA =  49.81    0   0    0.00(   0)    0   0  |    0   0  |   49.81  168 |   49.81  168
177  Texas State          AA =  48.61    0   0    0.00(   0)    0   0  |    0   0  |   48.61  177 |   48.61  177
192  Nicholls State       AA =  44.70    0   0    0.00(   0)    0   0  |    0   0  |   44.70  192 |   44.70  192
195  SE Louisiana         AA =  44.30    0   0    0.00(   0)    0   0  |    0   0  |   44.30  195 |   44.30  195
197  Northwestern State   AA =  43.75    0   0    0.00(   0)    0   0  |    0   0  |   43.75  197 |   43.75  197
213  Texas-San Antonio    AA =  40.80    0   0    0.00(   0)    0   0  |    0   0  |   40.80  213 |   40.80  213

 

Link: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc11.htm

Based on the Rating and advantage and ignoring the ELO_CHESS, we are favored by 9 over NWST 2 over SELA and 2 over Nicholls.

 

Why is NWST the lowest rated SLC team other than UTSA?

 

Will they update the advantage factor every week?

This is very interesting. I would have expected NWST, SE LA & Sam (not necessarily in that order) to be ahead of us. Sagrin must think he knows something the SID's & coaches don't. I would be happy to finish 3rd in our first year. Even happier to win it all.

This is very interesting. I would have expected NWST, SE LA & Sam (not necessarily in that order) to be ahead of us. Sagrin must think he knows something the SID's & coaches don't. I would be happy to finish 3rd in our first year. Even happier to win it all.

 

Since we are playing at SHSU, although their rating is slightly lower than ours, by this chart they will win because they get home field advantage points. I think LU's is the 3.08 number you see at the top. I'm not sure what SHSU's advantage points will be but it's likely greater than 0.15.

 

I'm honestly not sure if I'm reading this right, I read the first couple of paragraphs explaining the Ratings and how to compute a greater than 50% likelihood of winning.

I'm sure this is all pretty meaningless until they've played a few games.

I think Sagarins do not really mean anything until after 3 games.

I'm not so sure about SHSU being over us. I look at that game as being a possible nutral feild. I really think Lamar fans will turn out in Huntsville for that game. expecialy since they are offering reduced prices to the season tics holders.